by Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist, Windermere Real Estate
The following analysis of select Maui real estate markets is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Agent.
Hawaii’s economy offered a mixed bag of growth in the fourth quarter of 2018. Employment declined 1.4% but the unemployment rate was a healthy 2.3%. Over the past year, the economy has shed 9,300 jobs, and annual job gains have been negative for the past three months.
On Maui, employment growth dropped 1.9% and was negative for the whole of the fourth quarter. That said, there are 78,600 persons employed and over 3,400 job openings on Maui. The unemployment rate was 2.3%, up from 1.7% a year ago. The market’s civilian workforce has been in decline since last summer, which may be artificially keeping the unemployment rate low. The contraction in employment during fourth quarter doesn’t overly concern me as it is likely just seasonal.
HOME SALES ACTIVITY
- In the fourth quarter of 2018, 510 homes sold, a drop of 9.4% compared to the last quarter of 2017.
- Two markets saw growth in sales over the same period a year ago. The Spreckelsville/Pala/Kuau market saw an impressive 25% increase in transactions and Wailuku/Kahului saw sales rise by 6.9%. There was a significant decline in sales in Wailea/Makena/Kihei.
- The contraction in sales came as inventory levels dropped by 9.2%. It is possible that this is due to the 2018 volcanic eruption that occurred on the Big Island but, at this point, that is just speculation. I will be watching the data as we move through 2019 to see if this is the case or if there are other reasons for the slowdown.
- Inventory growth slowed, and this lack of choice may be why we saw sales drop. That said, well- positioned and well-priced homes are still selling relatively quickly.
- The average home price in the region rose 3.8% year-over-year to $866,107.
- Affordability is an issue, but the drop in interest rates at the end of 2018 may stimulatebuyers. I will be watching the numbers in the first and second quarters closely to see if we experience a turnaround in price growth.
- Appreciation was strongest in the Wailea/Makena/Kihei market, where prices rose by 22.8%. Two areas saw prices rise between the fourth quarter of 2017 and the final quarter of 2018, and three markets saw average sale prices drop.
- Because of affordability constraints in many Maui market areas, I anticipate we will see home prices continue to rise at fairly modest rates.
DAYS ON MARKET
- The average number of days it took to sell a home on Maui dropped 24 days compared to the final quarter of 2017.
- The amount of time it took to sell a home fell in four markets with market time rising only in the Wailuku/Kahului area, but that increase was a modest six days.
- In the fourth quarter of 2018, it took an average of 67 days to sell a home. The fastest moving market was in Wailuku / Kahului and the slowest was Lahaina / Kaanapali / Kapalua.
- Even with the slowdown in home sales in fourth quarter, housing demand is still there, as the drop in market time demonstrates. I anticipate we will see more activity and rising sales as we move through 2019.
The speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory,
price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
For the fourth quarter of 2018, I have placed the needle in favor of sellers, but the market may
be approaching equilibrium. Although there was a drop in home sales and price growth was fairly modest, we saw a small decline in pending sales, which may limit closings in the first quarter of 2019. That said, I remain positive about the longer-term outlook for home prices and demand on Maui.
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
by John Trupin
As we step forward into 2019, eco-friendly “green homes” are more popular than ever. Upgrading your home’s sustainability improves quality of life for those residing in it, but it is also a savvy long-term investment. As green homes become more popular, properties boasting sustainable features have become increasingly desirable targets for homebuyers. Whether designing a new home from scratch or preparing your current home for sale, accentuating a house with environmentally-friendly features can pay big dividends for everyone.
While the added value depends on the location of the home, its age, and whether it’s certified or not, three separate studies all found that newly constructed, Energy Star, or LEED-certified homes typically sell for about nine percent more than comparable, non-certified new homes. Plus, one of those studies discovered that existing homes retrofitted with green technologies, and certified as such, can command a whopping 30-percent sales-price boost.
There are dozens of eco-friendly features that can provide extra value for you as a seller. To name a few:
Cool roofs keep the houses they’re covering as much as 50 to 60 degrees cooler by reflecting the heat of the sun away from the interior, allowing the occupants to stay cooler and save on air-conditioning costs. The most common form is metal roofing. Other options include roof membranes and reflective asphalt shingles.
Fuel cells may soon offer an all-new source of electricity that would allow you to completely disconnect your home from all other sources of electricity. About the size of a dishwasher, a fuel cell connects to your home’s natural gas line and electrochemically converts methane to electricity. One unit would pack more than enough energy to power your whole home.
For many years, fuel cells have been far too expensive or unreliable. But as technology has improved, so too has reliability. Companies like Home Power Solutions and Redbox Power Systems have increased the reliability of these fuel sources while reducing their size. Much like we’ve seen computers and cell phones shrink in size while improving reliability and power, fuel cells continue to be refined.
A wind turbine (essentially a propeller spinning atop an 80- to 100-foot pole) collects kinetic energy from the wind and converts it to electricity for your home. And according to the Department of Energy, a small version can slash your electrical bill by 50 to 90 percent.
But before you get too excited, you need to know that the zoning laws in most urban areas don’t allow wind turbines. They’re too tall. The best prospects for this technology are homes located on at least an acre of land, well outside the city limits.
Another way to keep the interior of your house cooler—and save on air-conditioning costs—is to replace your traditional roof with a layer of vegetation (typically hardy groundcovers). This is more expensive than a cool roof and requires regular maintenance, but young, environmentally conscious homeowners are very attracted to the concept.
Combining a heat pump with a standard furnace to create what’s known as a “hybrid heating system” can save you somewhere between 15 and 35 percent on your heating and cooling bills.
Unlike a gas or oil furnace, a heat pump doesn’t use any fuel. Instead, the coils inside the unit absorb whatever heat exists naturally in the outside air, and distributes it via the same ductwork used by your furnace. When the outside air temperature gets too cold for the heat pump to work, the system switches over to your traditional furnace.
Geothermal heating units are like heat pumps, except instead of absorbing heat from the outside air, they absorb the heat in the soil next to your house via coils buried in the ground. The coils can be buried horizontally or, if you don’t have a wide enough yard, they can be buried vertically. While the installation price of a geothermal system can be several times that of a hybrid, air-sourced system, the cost savings on your energy bills can cover the installation costs in five to 10 years.
Solar panels capture light energy from the sun and convert it directly into electricity. Similarly to wind turbines, your geographical location may determine the feasibility of these installments. Even on cloudy days, however, solar panels typically produce 10-25% of their maximum energy output. For decades, you may have seen these panels sitting on sunny rooftops all across America. But it’s only recently that this energy-saving option has become truly affordable.
In 2010, installing a solar system on a typical mid-sized house would have set the homeowner back $30,000. But as of December 2018, the average cost after tax credits for solar panel installation was just $13,188! Plus, some companies are now offering to rent solar panels to homeowners (the company retains ownership of the panels and sells the homeowner access to the power at roughly 10 to 15 percent less than they would pay their local utility).
Solar water heaters
Rooftop solar panels can also be used to heat your home’s water. The Environmental Protection Agency estimates that the average homeowner who makes this switch should see their water bills shrink by 50 to 80 percent.
Many of the innovative solutions summarized above come with big price tags attached. However, federal, state and local rebates/tax credits can often slash those expenses by as much as 50 percent. So before ruling any of these ideas out, take some time to see which incentives you may qualify for at dsireusa.org and the “tax incentives” pages at Energy.Gov.